Climate Change Is Closer Than You Think

Climate change is often portrayed as a distant threat affecting melting glaciers, remote islands, or communities far away. For millions of farmers across Kenya and Africa, however, it is already shaping everyday decisions about planting, fertiliser, labour, food prices, and survival.

Headlines often focus on dramatic events: hurricanes, floods, or extreme heat disrupting cities and global gatherings. Those stories matter, but they can obscure the quieter impacts unfolding far from television cameras.

This year, I received a powerful reminder of just how close climate change has become.

A Simple Plan

At the beginning of the year, I set a modest goal: contribute to food security through a small-scale farming venture that would feed my family and, hopefully, a few neighbours. After all, I am African, and sharing what you have is part of how many of us were raised.

The year began well. The rains arrived in February, bringing optimism across our farming community. We cleared the land, ploughed, harrowed, and prepared for planting. By the end of the month, all remaining was securing seed and fertiliser.

Like many Kenyan farmers, I depended on the government’s subsidised fertiliser programme. Fertiliser is one of the largest maize production costs. Subsidised fertiliser was available at about KES 2,500 per 50kg bag, compared to commercial prices of KES 5,500 to KES 6,500. On paper, everything looked promising.

The First Shock

Accessing subsidised fertiliser turned into a nightmare. Nearby National Cereals and Produce Board depots repeatedly ran out of stock. Whenever supplies arrived, they disappeared almost instantly. Some appeared pre-booked, while others allegedly ended up with brokers and middlemen.

Meanwhile, the rains began to change. Frequent downpours became less reliable, and days without rain turned into weeks. With the planting window shrinking, I bought fertiliser from commercial suppliers at nearly double the subsidised price.

My first loss had already been recorded. But I was fortunate: many farmers could not afford the higher prices and remained trapped waiting for subsidised supplies.

The Cost of Delay

Late planting brought another expense: labour. Because many farmers were planting at the same time after fertiliser delays, labour demand surged. Work normally costing about KES 2,000 suddenly required KES 3,000 or more. That was my second loss.

Still, we planted. The rains returned, crops emerged, and hope was restored. Maize germinated well, and we completed the first weeding. When armyworms appeared, we invested in pest control. The fields looked healthy and pointed towards a good harvest.

Déjà Vu at Top Dressing

Then came top dressing, the practice of applying fertiliser after the maize crop has already emerged and established. Again, government assurances suggested fertiliser would arrive on time. Again, farmers queued for hours and returned home empty-handed. Again, shortages created opportunities for speculators.

By then, the maize was knee-high and timing mattered. Delayed fertiliser application reduces productivity and limits yield potential. Eventually, I returned to the commercial market and bought fertiliser at around KES 6,000 per bag. That was my third loss.

Then the Rains Disappeared

Just as the crop entered a critical growth stage, the rains stopped. The anticipated long rains season around March and April delivered disappointing results. Clouds gathered in the morning and vanished by midday. Evening skies darkened, then cleared without meaningful rainfall. Occasional showers settled dust but did little for the crops.

Every farmer had the same prayer: “Give us just two good days of rain so we can top dress.” The rain never came.

Without adequate soil moisture, applying fertiliser would risk burning the crop and wasting scarce resources. So we waited and watched. Green fields faded, leaves curled, and stalks weakened. What had promised a good harvest became uncertainty.

The Hidden Cost of Climate Change

Climate change is often measured in temperature anomalies, emissions reductions, or adaptation funding gaps. For farmers, it is measured in delayed planting, higher input costs, failed harvests, and food purchased because it could not be grown.

For many smallholder maize farmers, production costs can exceed KES 30,000 to KES 40,000 per acre depending on location, labour, fertiliser prices, and pest management. When weather fails, most of that investment is lost, and families must spend more income buying food.

These losses quickly become national food security challenges. According to Kenya’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), about 2.2 million people faced acute food insecurity in early 2025, projected to rise to 2.8 million as poor rainfall affects crops and livestock. More than 800,000 children under five and over 120,000 pregnant and lactating women were acutely malnourished and required treatment.

Such experiences are becoming more common. Scientific evidence shows Kenya is experiencing greater rainfall variability, more frequent droughts, intense rainfall events, and rising temperatures directly affecting agricultural productivity. The IPCC also projects increasing climate variability across Africa.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation has repeatedly identified climate variability as one of the greatest threats facing agriculture. This matters because agriculture contributes about 23 per cent of GDP directly and supports millions of livelihoods.

The Case for Investment

When climate and development professionals call for more climate finance, they are asking for investments in resilience: reliable climate information, better forecasting, irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, efficient input distribution, and drought-resistant seeds to help farmers adapt to unpredictable weather.

The World Bank warns climate change threatens Kenya’s economic growth, poverty reduction, food security, and rural livelihoods unless substantial investments are made in adaptation and resilience.

Development partners have recognised this challenge. The Green Climate Fund has committed more than US$500 million across climate-related projects in Kenya, while the TWENDE programme has mobilised US$34.5 million, with US$23.2 million from the GCF, to strengthen drought resilience and support about 775,000 people in arid and semi-arid lands.

Failing to invest today often means much higher costs tomorrow through emergency food relief, humanitarian appeals, livestock losses, damaged infrastructure, reduced productivity, and lost livelihoods.

Climate Change Is Already Here

My story is not unique. It is being repeated across farming communities in Kenya and much of Africa. According to the World Food Programme, nearly 95 per cent of Kenya’s crop production is rain-fed, leaving millions of farmers exposed to erratic weather.

Climate change is not only the flood on the evening news. It is fertiliser arriving too late, labour costing more because planting was delayed, rain stopping at the wrong time, and a harvest never materialising despite months of investment and hard work.

For many families, climate change is not a distant threat. It is already standing at the doorstep.

Written by Jotham Wadongo – Director of Programmes and Climate Finance, Expertise Global